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Trillion dollar LNG stocktake: five countries plan 75% of new export capacity, 90% of new import capacity lined up for Asia and Europe

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LNG Industry,

Global LNG project developments spurred on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine materialised this year, as the US and Qatar solidified their positions as top developers of export capacity, whilst Asian and European countries scrambled for new import capacity, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor.

According to data in the Global Gas Infrastructure Tracker, the leading countries developing new export terminals are: the US (336.9 million tpy), Russia (164.1 million tpy), Canada (75.8 million tpy), Mexico (69.3 million tpy), and Qatar (49 million tpy).

While relatively little new LNG export capacity has come online in recent years, a wave of new projects – half of which are under construction in the United States and Qatar, totalling 74 million tpy and 33 million tpy, respectively – could saturate the global LNG market, increasing competition among exporters and rendering some projects unprofitable. The ensuing supply glut could leave governments and investors with costly stranded assets.

New import capacity is dominated by Asia (454 million tpy) and Europe (183 million tpy), with China (267.9 million tpy), India (75.2 million tpy), and Germany (65.4 million tpy) having the most capacity in development.

However, LNG demand in Europe could prove short-lived as the continent pursues its decarbonisation agenda, and the price sensitivity of many Asian importers has called into question LNG demand growth forecasts.

Robert Rozansky, Global LNG Analyst at Global Energy Monitor, said: “Building new LNG projects when fossil demand is expected to peak this decade is a risky proposition for investors and governments alike. If even a fraction of these projects go ahead it would threaten to further delay the energy transition during a critical period.”

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