Global supply shocks – not EU methane rules – are driving current market pressures

The study follows Rystad Energy's December 2025 assessment, which found that the EUMR could strengthen European energy security by improving transparency, reducing waste and supporting the EU's shift away from Russian fossil fuels. This latest analysis examines whether that conclusion still holds under the current geopolitical crisis triggered by disruption in the Middle East. The answer is yes: despite significant market turbulence, the study finds no evidence that the EUMR is contributing to current market pressures and no evidence that weakening, delaying or suspending implementation would improve energy security outcomes. Compliant supply remains available at levels well above current European import requirements.

“This analysis tested whether current geopolitical disruption significantly changes the feasibility of implementing the EU Methane Regulation. We found no evidence that the Regulation is driving current price increases or have caused material supply pressures. Instead, market impacts are primarily linked to broader geopolitical developments, while OGMP Level 5 supply is expected to be available at levels well above current European import requirements,” said Andreas N. Skorpen, Partner, Rystad Energy.

The study also finds that trade diversion risks remain limited. Around 55% of all US LNG exports are sold into Europe, highlighting the continued importance of European demand for major exporters. Contracting activity shows no evidence of a structural shift away from Europe.

“Six months ago, Rystad's analysis showed that the EU Methane Regulation could strengthen Europe's energy security. This latest study puts that conclusion to the test under real market stress. The findings are clear: today's pressures are geopolitical, not regulatory. Weakening the Regulation would not lower prices or improve supply security. The focus should now be on pragmatic implementation by Member States and industry that strengthens transparency, resilience and Europe's long-term energy independence,” added Dr. Léa Pilsner, Director, EU Energy Policy at Environmental Defense Fund Europe.

Among its key findings, the report concludes that:

• There is no credible evidence linking current oil and gas price increases to the EUMR.
• Market impacts observed today are primarily attributable to geopolitical disruption and global supply uncertainty.
• Trade diversion risks appear limited, with exporters continuing to depend on European demand.
• Contracting activity remains broadly consistent with recent trends, with no observable decline linked to EUMR.
• Global OGMP Level 5-compliant gas volumes exceed current EU import requirements by more than three times.
• EUMR complements REPowerEU and the EU's efforts to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels by increasing transparency and traceability across energy supply chains.

The findings come as some industry groups have argued that current geopolitical tensions justify delaying or weakening implementation of the EUMR on energy security grounds.

The analysis finds little evidence to support those claims. Instead, it concludes that the remaining challenges associated with the Regulation are primarily operational and implementation-related rather than questions of supply availability.

“The policy discussion should now focus on implementation," added Pilsner. "Europe does not need to choose between energy security and methane accountability. The evidence increasingly shows that both objectives can advance together.”

Read the article online at: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/23062026/global-supply-shocks-not-eu-methane-rules-are-driving-current-market-pressures/