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  4. EIA: US natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up

EIA: US natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up

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LNG Industry,

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), it forecasts that US LNG exports will continue to increase as five LNG export projects start operations and ramp up production by the end of 2027. The EIA also forecasts increased natural gas pipeline exports, mainly to Mexico. In the forecast, net exports of US natural gas (exports minus imports) grow 18% to 18.7 billion ft3/d in 2026. In 2027, net exports increase another 10% to 20.5 billion ft3/d.

The EIA forecasts that US LNG exports rise 1.9 billion ft3/d in 2026 to average 17 billion ft3/d and increase by an additional 9% (1.5 billion ft3/d) in 2027. It forecasts natural gas pipeline exports to grow by 4% (0.4 billion ft3/d) in 2026 and 2% (0.2 billion ft3/d) in 2027.

US LNG export terminals are expected to run at slightly higher utilisation rates in 2026 despite already running at relatively high rates in 2025 because recent disruptions to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing demand for LNG cargoes from outside the strait. The disruptions, mostly concentrated in Qatar, currently represent over 10 billion ft3/d, or 20% of global supply. Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after an attack on 18 March 2026 on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains. QatarEnergy estimates repairs on the damaged trains could take up to five years.

Current US peak export capacity is 18.3 billion ft3/d. In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start up trains 5 – 7 (0.6 billion ft3/d combined), and Golden Pass LNG will start up its first two trains (1.4 billion ft3/d). The EIA expects Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (1.6 billion ft3/d), Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 & 2 (1.4 billion ft3/d), and the final train of Golden Pass LNG (0.7 billion ft3/d) will begin exports in 2027. In addition to these new terminals, Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received DOE approval in March and April 2026 to increase their permitted exports by 0.5 billion ft3/d and 0.1 billion ft3/d, respectively.

In 2025, US LNG exports to Europe reached a record 10.3 billion ft3/d, up from 6.3 billion ft3/d in 2024 and accounted for 68% of LNG export volumes, according to the EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly. Exports to Italy (+0.5 billion ft3/d) and Poland (+0.3 billion ft3/d) rose the fastest in Europe. Exports to Asia fell from 4 billion ft3/d in 2024 to 2.5 billion ft3/d in 2025, representing 16% of LNG export volumes. China-bound US LNG exports fell to zero in 2025 from 0.6 billion ft3/d in 2024 as traders resold cargoes due to trade tensions. Additionally, exports to Egypt quadrupled from 0.3 billion ft3/d in 2024 to 1.2 billion ft3/d in 2025, which drove a 0.7 billion ft3/d increase in exports to the rest of the world.

US LNG imports, which primarily serve New England and generally peak in winter months, were essentially unchanged at less than 0.1 billion ft3/d in 2025. The EIA expects LNG imports to average 0.1 billion ft3/d in 2026 – 2027 and continue to serve as a marginal supply source during periods of high demand, particularly in the winter months.

The EIA expects US pipeline exports to continue increasing over the forecast period, reaching 9.8 billion ft3/d in 2026 and 10 billion ft3/d in 2027, after rising 0.4 billion ft3/d in 2025 to average 9.5 billion ft3/d. This upward trend is driven by Mexico’s growing demand for natural gas, both from growth in power generation and the development of two new LNG export facilities expected to come online over the next two years. Those facilities will be fed by US-origin pipeline gas exports. The Energía Costa Azul LNG terminal and the second phase of Fast LNG Altamira floating LNG production vessel (FLNG2) will have a combined 0.6 billion ft3/d of export capacity and are expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

US natural gas pipeline imports from Canada rose by 0.1 billion ft3/d in 2025, averaging 8.6 billion ft3/d. The EIA expects pipeline imports from Canada to decrease to 8 billion ft3/d in 2027 as two LNG facilities with a combined capacity of 2.1 billion ft3/d along the west coast of Canada ramp up over the next few years, and Northeast US natural gas demand is supplied by production growth in the Appalachia region.

Read the article online at: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquefaction/17042026/eia-us-natural-gas-exports-to-grow-nearly-30-by-2027-as-lng-facilities-ramp-up/

 
 

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