Wood Mackenzie: Middle East oil and gas recovery faces months-long process despite ceasefire
Published by Jessica Casey,
Editor
LNG Industry,
A two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is bearish for global gas prices, but as of noon London time on 8 April 2026, little has fundamentally changed with regards to LNG supply.
“The ceasefire means it may be possible for the 14 trapped laden LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit the Strait of Hormuz and provide some relief to the global gas market,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe Gas and LNG Wood Mackenzie. “But for there to be a real structural change in supply, the Ras Laffan site in Qatar would need to restart its 12 operable trains. It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire, however.”
Satellite imagery shows that two mega-trains at the Ras Laffan's North site still have heat signatures, so may be able to fully restart relatively quickly.
As with oil, it remains to be seen how quickly any ships leave the Strait, as visual checks by Iranian authorities may still need to take place between Larak island and the Iranian mainland.
“If ballast LNG vessels were able to enter the Gulf, loading would also be possible immediately for 10+ vessels, even if LNG production at Ras Laffan has not yet resumed,” said Marzec-Manser. “There have been a number of loadings for delivery to Kuwait while the conflict has been ongoing.”
Wood Mackenzie assumes that if QatarEnergy began restarting Ras Laffan at the start of May, it would take all the way to the end of August for the 12 trains to return to full service. A restart of just the 41 million tpy North site would take just over a month. It would be the South site which takes through to the end of the summer to restart.
It is the South site which originally had a 36mtpa capacity that have sustained damage. These two additional trains will not return to service for a number of years and reduce the site's capacity to 24 million tpy.
Wood Mackenzie assumes the ADNOC's 5 million tpy Das Island LNG plant in the UAE will be able to return to service fairly quickly.
“Outside LNG, domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE has been harder hit than oil, and that recovery process could require longer-term repair work,” Marzec-Manser added. “Sustained disruption at Habshan would have wide-ranging implications for domestic gas availability, compelling the UAE to reduce reinjection volumes or increase piped imports via the Dolphin pipeline.”
Read the article online at: https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/09042026/wood-mackenzie-middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire/
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