Wood Mackenzie forecasts requirement for over 650 new LNG carriers by 2040

The ‘Global LNG shipping outlook: form an ordering queue’ analysis examined recent LNG trade and shipping dynamics and the long-term requirement for newbuild LNG carriers.

The market has experienced 18 months of historically low short-term charter rates. Newbuild vessel deliveries averaging over 20 per quarter during the same period drove the weakness. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 2026 will see another year of strong deliveries with limited signs of near-term upside.

However, the market outlook shifts from 2027 onwards. New large scale LNG supply coming onstream this decade, supported by a record year of LNG supply final investment decisions in 2025, will drive demand for shipping capacity. Much of the new capacity is in the US, where LNG trades on a free-on-board basis. This will increase the proportion of LNG cargoes that react to fluctuations in global gas prices. The result will be less direct LNG trade patterns, creating a more inefficient market that requires additional shipping capacity.

Build times are the complicating factor.

Fraser Carson, Principal Analyst, Global LNG Assets at Wood Mackenzie, commented: “LNG carriers are taking around 2.5 – 3 years to build at the moment. If players have already contracted LNG offtake to start before the end of the decade, the decision around placing a newbuild order needs to be made now.”

Key findings:

• Over 650 new LNG carriers (174 000 m³ equivalent) required by 2040 based on Wood Mackenzie trade and scrapping forecasts.
• Current orderbook supports global trade through 2030 but individual requirements are needed before then.
• Newbuild investment was limited for most of 2025.

Maritime emissions regulations are accelerating fleet turnover. The European Commission brought maritime CO₂ emissions into its Emissions Trading System in stages between 2021 and 2024, making older, less efficient vessels increasingly uneconomic to operate globally.

The numbers reflect the shift. Average scrapping age has dropped from around 40 years historically to 26 years. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 73 vessels scrapped over the next five years, versus 55 over the previous 11.

Carson noted that softer pricing and geopolitical uncertainty likely kept some charterers on the sidelines in 2025. But the clock is ticking.

Carson concluded: “Vessels are exiting the LNG fleet more quickly and earlier than ever before, and the capacity lost will need to be replaced. We expect to see an upturn in ordering activity during 2026.”

Read the article online at: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/04022026/wood-mackenzie-forecasts-requirement-for-over-650-new-lng-carriers-by-2040/