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Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation drives Sub-Saharan Africa gas production in 2021

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s gas production will grow by 18% by 2021 to 9.1 billion ft3 per day. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation will drive Sub-Saharan Africa’s gas production with 34.2% share of all the production in 2021. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Eni SpA follow with 10.4 and 7.8% respectively, according to GlobalData.

Over 6.4 billion ft3 per day of natural gas in 2021 will be produced by conventional gas projects, while coal bed methane (cbm) projects will contribute 8.5 million ft3 per day to Sub-Saharan Africa production in 2021. Conventional, unconventional, and heavy oil projects together will contribute about 2.6 billion ft3 per day of associated gas by 2021.

Carlos Gomes, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Sub-Saharan Africa has 28 key upcoming gas projects, of which, 16 will be producing by 2021. Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos EP and Eni SpA will lead in greenfield gas projects, with six projects each, followed by Exxon Mobil Corp with five projects in the near future.”

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to spend US$33.0 billion as capital expenditure (capex) on conventional gas and CBM projects between 2018 and 2021, with spending peaking in 2021 at US$11.8 billion. Average full cycle capex per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for Sub-Saharan Africa gas projects is US$4.5. CBM projects have full-cycle capex of US$5.3 per boe, while conventional gas projects need US$4.5 per boe in full cycle capex. Deepwater projects have the highest average full cycle capex of US$7.0 per boe, followed by shallow-water, ultra-deepwater and onshore projects with an average full cycle capex per boe of US$5.4, US$5.0 and US$2.7 respectively.

New gas projects average US$5.1 per boe in capex and need a gas price of US$6.0 per thousand ft3 to break even over the development timeline. Average development break-even price for planned and announced ultra-deepwater projects in Sub-Saharan Africa is US$6.4 per million ft3, while the shallow water and deepwater projects have a development break-even price of US$6.9 and US$5.0 per million ft3 respectively. Onshore projects require a gas price of US$3.9 permillion ft3 to break even.

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