Editorial Comment

To date, this year has seen two shifts in North American politics in the re-election of President Donald Trump in January and the transition within the Canadian Liberal Party from long-standing Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, to the newly elected Mark Carney. Meanwhile in Europe, the conclusion of the 69^th Eurovision Song Contest witnessed Austria win for a third time while, in spring, the Vatican City also experienced a change to its head of state following the passing of Pope Francis I in April. Robert Prevost was selected and is now acting as Pope Leo XIV.

While the Vatican City is yet to make waves in the LNG industry, President Trump’s re-election initiated large changes in global LNG markets. Early into his second term, the Trump Administration established an Energy Dominance Council with the aim of solidifying the US’ position as a leading global energy producer – this included a surge in LNG infrastructure both for internal use, reducing national imports, and worldwide exports. Meanwhile, the President’s tariff tensions, which included 25% tariffs for Mexican and Canadian goods and 145% tariffs for China, meant that exports to the US’ largest LNG consumer plummeted.¹ For large parts of spring, no US LNG cargo reached China and total Asian LNG imports fell by almost 10% between January and April.²

In Canada, PM Carney responded with intentions to construct a national electricity grid, reducing Canadian energy dependence on the US, and looks to invest CAN$5 billion in Canadian transport infrastructure, helping to diversify the country’s trading partners.³ Amidst these trade tensions, European saw a rise in US LNG imports, supported by weaker Asian imports and reflecting a willingness to reduce dependency on Russian energy.

As we move into 2H25, President Trump has lowered import tariffs from China to 30% for a 90-day period, set to expire on 9 July 2025; however, experts warn that these pauses will be insufficient in restoring energy trade between China and the US.⁴ Primarily, these pauses do not provide certainty beyond this period, nor motivate China to resume trading with US energy commodities. Additionally, severed trade ties with China may impact US exporters looking to scale up LNG infrastructure later this year.⁴ Regardless, the EIA expects US LNG exports to increase 17% overall in 2025, helped by increased EU imports.⁵ Indeed, European LNG storage could reach 100% capacity by November 2025 if current import levels are sustained.⁶

In this issue, our keynote report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies makes the case for LNG amidst President Trump’s ‘energy dominance’ agenda, exploring how global LNG markets are set to adapt to geopolitics for the rest of the year and beyond. As the year continues, and as 2030 emissions target deadlines continue to approach, managing methane emissions and ramping up decarbonisation efforts are increasingly vital. It begs the question – how will additional operational pressures contribute to an already tumultuous energy investment market?

Abby Butler