Wood Mackenzie’s analysis published 23 July 2026 warns that European gas storage at a historically low level, combined with renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption, has driven spot prices more than 50% above their June lows and placed winter 2026/27 supply security at risk.
Three pressures are bearing down at once. Storage across Europe stands at just above 50%, a historically low level for late July. Asian LNG demand has returned to 2025 levels, despite the shortfall in Qatari volumes, sharpening competition with Europe for available cargoes. And there is limited new LNG supply growth over the next 12 months: Qatari developments are not expected back at full capacity before 2H27.
Considering a hypothetical ‘best case’ scenario assuming Qatar reaches full operational capacity by end of September, excluding damaged trains, Wood Mackenzie's analysis suggests European storage reaches 75% at best by 1 November. The five-year average for that date is 90%. Should the Strait remain closed for a further two months, storage will end up lower than 70%. Prices would rise further and some emerging Asian economies, already strained by high LNG costs, face demand destruction.
“Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Key findings:
- Europe faces a structural storage deficit heading into winter 2026/27. Storage at just above 54% is historically low for late July. Even under the best-case scenario, Europe enters the heating season at 75% capacity against a 90% five-year average.
- Spot prices are up more than 50% since 12 June and trading above €60/MWh (US$20/million Btu). Gas is proving more sensitive than oil to the disruption.
- The supply gap will not close quickly. No significant new LNG supply is expected over the next 9 – 12 months, with new Qatari capacity not online before 2H27.
- Some emerging Asian economies face demand destruction, not just price pain. Wealthier nations can absorb the cost. Lower-income markets cannot.
- LNG market might only rebalance from 2028. Sustained disruption or new geopolitical risks is poised to reduce both the duration and the depth of the antici-pated global LNG oversupply.