More than a dozen ministers from European governments will join the US energy and interior secretaries on 6 – 7 November at an event focused on energy security in Central and Eastern Europe. The Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation (P-TEC) meeting in Athens, Greece, is co-organised by the U.S. Department of Energy and will feature discussions on infrastructure projects and investment opportunities.
The event may involve the arrangement of long-term LNG deals. Such deals will not guarantee Central and Eastern Europe's security of energy supply. Buyers considering long-term contracts face real risks related to profitability and LNG uptake.
If renewable energy and non-Russian gas pipeline sources remain cheaper alternatives to LNG, and if gas demand continues falling, Central and Eastern European countries will reduce their reliance on LNG imports in the coming years.
Given current market trends, IEEFA forecasts that Central and Eastern European gas consumption could drop from 181 billion m3 in 2024 to around 137 billion m3 in 2050, a 24% decline.
After the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, European countries primarily intended to use LNG as a stopgap. European LNG imports remain highly unpredictable, rising and falling with the continent’s uncertain gas demand. EU LNG imports fell by 16% in 2024 and then increased by 21% y/y in 1H25.
European countries risk over-relying on one supplier if they commit to long-term US LNG contracts. The US supplied more than half (57%) of Europe’s LNG imports in 1H25, as deliveries from the country reached a new high. Germany and Greece sourced 94% and 84%, respectively, of their LNG imports from the US in 1H25.
In 2024, LNG imports supplied 11% of Central and Eastern Europe’s gas demand of 181 billion m3, from terminals in Croatia, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, and Poland. Central and Eastern European countries’ indigenous gas production in 2024 was 43 billion m3, mainly from Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Germany, Denmark, and Hungary. The region also imported pipeline gas from Azerbai-jan, Norway, Russia, and Türkiye, as well as gas transit via neighbouring countries.
Central and Eastern European countries have diversified their sources of gas supply. Gas has flowed to demand points even after the end of Russian pipeline gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025.
EU gas demand reduction
The EU launched its REPowerEU proposal in May 2022 to end its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Since then, EU Member States have accelerated the rollout of renewables, saved energy and boosted energy efficiency. The EU enhanced its energy security by reducing gas demand by more than 20% between 2021 and 2024. EU gas consumption increased by 4% y/y in 1H25, but it was still 21% less than in 1H21.
Following a rise in LNG imports in 2025, IEEFA expects Europe’s demand for the fuel to continue declining in the coming years as gas consumption falls. Between 2025 and 2030, IEEFA forecasts that EU LNG imports will drop by 19% to 110 billion m3.