PIRA Energy group believes that liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes are more of an option than a necessity. Analysis of natural gas market fundamentals has revealed the following:
LNG cargoes
PIRA’s view on supply availability during 2013 has been that in most European markets for most of this year, LNG cargoes have been more of an option than a necessity, offering up between three and six cargoes each month in re-exports alone. Led by losses in the power sector, European gas demand has been so poor throughout 2013 that the cargoes were more valuable on the resale market than for consumption in Europe. These extra cargoes have emerged despite unexpected LNG supply losses from Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria to the European contract holders.
Weather impact
Weather related gas demand and a lack of supply flexibility put a charge into day-ahead prices this week, which was in line with PIRA’s forecast. Next week and beyond, weather will play a lesser role, however supply constraints are still very much a factor.
Adapted from press release by Katie Woodward