An analyst with GlobalData believes that Rosneft’s current gas strategy is narrowly focused on developing domestic reserves and initiating LNG projects in Russia, despite its recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Golar LNG.
Anna Belova, GlobalData’s Upstream Analyst covering the Former Soviet Union, said that although the MoU with Golar LNG can be seen as a continuation of Rosneft’s expansion into the Latin American upstream sector, the region’s natural gas opportunities may struggle to compete with already identified, low-cost prospects in Russia.
Belova said: “If there is any LNG development linked to Rosneft, it will most likely come from production in Russia. Rosneft’s ability to export Russian LNG was signed into law in late 2013 after several years of aggressive lobbying, so the company will probably seek to capitalise on this opportunity.
“Moreover, despite Rosneft’s frequently expressed ambition to become a world-class integrated oil company, the firm’s major stakeholder, the Russian government, is not currently in a position to finance large international projects.”
Belova added: “The company will prioritise the successful commencement of its Far East LNG project, part of the larger Sakhalin-1 development, which is expected to come online in 2018 – 2019. This project will enter an already crowded global liquefaction market that is forecast to double by 2018.
“Within this timeframe, GlobalData believes that the chance of additional international projects stemming from Rosneft’s MoU with Golar LNG is very limited.”
Edited from press release by Callum O'Reilly